Business As Usual = Game Over
I’ve often wondered what it would be like to live in the shadow of civilizational collapse…well, that’s not exactly accurate, as I only started thinking about it these last few years due to the proliferation of attacks on both objective facts and science, paired with my own ever-increasing awareness of our escalation towards climate catastrophe. I mean, think about it this way — on January 1st of 2020, did you think it possible that a Global Pandemic would infect a half a billion people worldwide, kill millions (including over one million in the U.S.), unravel the finely tuned global supply-chain and yet many people would still think it a hoax? On January 1st of 2021, did you think the mendacious rantings of our former president, unable to accept his defeat in a democratic election, would lead to an actual insurrection at our Capitol, with “blue lives matter” flag bearers attacking blue lives? On January 1st of 2022, did you think that an equally thin-skinned Autocrat in Russia would violently invade another sovereign European country for the first time since World War 2?
And in the background during all these unforeseen “black swan” events (technically not accurate here, since these events were foreseen by some), booms the drumbeat of unrelenting climate chaos. Fire, heat and drought. Hurricanes, rain and floods. Mudslides, land subsidence, sea-level rise, salt water intrusion, ocean warming & acidification, coral bleaching and crop failures. Extreme heatwaves in southeast Asia equals massive crop failures. Russian war of aggression in Ukraine equals less harvest in one of the world’s major breadbaskets equals bread shortages in Africa and the Middle East. Drought and crop failures equal famine. All of these stressors equal climate migration and an increased chance of conflict. As resources are depleted, the probability of both deadly internal and external conflict increases.
There’s an oft repeated quote that goes something like “All it takes for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” And I would interject a corollary that’s only been evident recently, but it goes something like “All we need for climate change to upend civilization is to do nothing and pursue business as usual.” That’s a terrifying thought, because it indicates that collapse is a near certainty not because we, as humanity, do something as stupid as starting a nuclear war (though I wouldn’t put it past us) — no, quite the opposite — all we need to do is to keep doing what we are doing. Which is what we always do, because it’s the path of least resistance. It’s easy.
And yet this is counter-intuitive in a way, because for the majority of people living in our current late-stage capitalism, life is not that easy. But for the minority of us who benefit the most from its fruits, life is very comfortable and so it’s extremely inconvenient to rock the boat (i.e. pleasure craft!) You agree to disagree with your climate-denying, election-denying, science-and-fact-denying buddy at the golf club (or tennis club or bridge club)…let’s talk about what investment strategy we’re pursuing (hello Bear market!) or if the snow will be better in Tahoe or Vail this year (with the only guarantee being that nearly all resorts will have less of the white stuff in the coming years). For evil and climate chaos to triumph, say nothing. Do nothing. Business as usual, right up till the end when the unsustainable system fails. Like the toilet paper, like the Texas power failure, like a Global Pandemic, like a peaceful transfer of power.
It’s time to get comfortable being uncomfortable. It’s time to look in the mirror and figure out where you stand in all this; what blasphemies and crimes against both people and the environment are you willing to overlook for the sake of your continued comfort? In Europe’s comfort enabled by Russian gas imports, Putin funds his genocidal war on neighboring Ukraine, sanctions be damned. In order to appease U.S. consumers, the Biden administration is re-opening federal lands for oil and gas exploration, which is in direct opposition to meeting the goals set forth in his own climate strategy (“oh well, the planet can cook a bit longer.”) In order to fuel its energy needs, India is boosting coal production and angling to buy newly available Russian oil at a discount. The Paris Agreement and the latest COP meeting in Scotland seem meaningless now, with nations distracted by war, inflation and internal politics — indeed, we are going backwards. Those promises and words are a joke — “we have eight years left to make drastic changes, but not just yet…I’m up for re-election and the public needs cheap gas.” This is what business as usual looks like — no hard decisions, no sacrifice, and a suicidal need to maintain the status quo until it runs you off the cliff. Or you slam headfirst into a wall — insert self-destructive gory metaphor here.
“And I didn’t even see it coming,” said the man with his eyes screwed tightly shut.
