Thanks for writing this Adam, a really great piece that neatly encapsulates our present, our wishful future and our likely certain future. I have to agree with one of the other respondents who chimed in that while it seems crazy that we will not attempt to mitigate the harms coming down the pipeline, we likely will never really get into "crisis" mode as your piece defines it...at least not on a meaningful national or global basis, more just within select smaller nations, states and communities. Something to strive for though, for sure. The last two pieces I wrote sort of show the trajectory from earned "hope" to likely reality, shifts that I've gone through in my thinking over 5 years of climate advocacy.
https://medium.com/@barrett-h-stuart/so-youre-telling-me-there-s-a-chance-189710a4c66d
https://medium.com/@barrett-h-stuart/so-i-told-you-there-was-a-chance-5a6537857996
I'm not sure that I currently have more to add on the subject given the intractable nature of our polarized world (I've sort of hit a wall with saying the same thing louder and illuminating different angles of the same base problem of overshoot), but glad you weighed in! I will pass your thoughts on...